D3050: Forecasting the effects of climate change on cranberry insect pests through spatial and temporal analysis

British Columbia (BC) is the largest producer of cranberries in Canada. For over 20 years, integrated pest management services have provided management recommendations based on insect pest enumeration during the growing season. However, there is limited information on how the weather affects long-term insect development, which could help predict pest risks in cranberry fields. We will analyze historical insect and weather data to understand the influence of weather on five major cranberry insect pests in various regions within the lower mainland, BC. We will use temporal models to examine any changes to the timing of first insect emergence, degree days for development, and economic thresholds to initiate control measures over time for each region. Using spatial models, we will determine and visually associate mean and cumulative insect counts with average regional temperatures and precipitation. The lower mainland will be spatially modelled according to mean or cumulative insect counts and average temperature or precipitation to visually represent if there are possible insect habitat range changes over the years. Bioclimatic models will be developed and verified to simulate the spatial-temporal effects of hypothetical climate change scenarios on cranberry insect populations, development, and habitat range. This information can be used as a predictive tool to identify pest risk and develop long-term pest management strategies.